An unusual combination of Supreme Court justices appears to be coalescing to strike down President Donald Trump\u2019s global tariffs, according to an analyst.<\/p>\n
The top court heard arguments Wednesday in a case challenging Trump\u2019s ability to use the International Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose his so-called reciprocal tariffs and duties meant to curb the fentanyl trade. <\/p>\n
It didn\u2019t go well for Trump. The administration\u2019s lawyer admitted that a future president, under its own legal reasoning, could use IEEPA to declare a climate emergency and block imports of gasoline-powered cars. <\/p>\n
The solicitor general also conceded that Americans are paying part of the tariff costs and argued tariffs are not a tax meant to raise revenue\u2014even though Trump and numerous White House officials have been touting for months how much revenue the levies are generating. <\/p>\n
A potentially decisive moment may have come when Justice Neil Gorsuch suggested the administration\u2019s stance opens the door to a \u201cone-way ratchet\u201d that would allow the White House to accumulate power permanently at the expense of Congress.<\/p>\n
In a note on Thursday, Capital Alpha Partners cofounder James Lucier offered some predictions on how the justices would vote, saying conservative Amy Coney Barrett will likely join liberals Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson in going against Trump. <\/p>\n
\u201cCrucially, the three conservative Justices who are considered to be the most conservative on the court \u2013 Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch \u2013 also appear to go into the same category as Barrett,\u201d Lucier wrote. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Chief Justice John Roberts, who are conservatives too but have also been swing votes in the past, \u201cseem questionably likely at best\u201d to uphold the tariffs, he added. <\/p>\n
That suggests a potentially lopsided 7-2 vote against Trump, who appointed Gorsuch, Barrett and Kavanaugh during his first term. <\/p>\n
And even if Alito and Thomas side with the administration, the high court is still poised to hand Trump a defeat, albeit by a narrower margin.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe more likely scenarios would all have Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch voting to strike down the IEEPA tariffs or to curtail them, in our view,\u201d Lucier said. \u201cAlternatively, at a minimum, we could see Barrett and Gorsuch joining the three liberal Justices to strike down the tariffs 5-4.\u201d <\/p>\n
Despite Alito and Thomas generally being more sympathetic to presidential power, they and Gorsuch would have \u201cgrave reservations\u201d about upholding Trump\u2019s tariffs, which raise their concerns over the separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches, he added. <\/p>\n