Updated Feb. 17, 2026, 12:47 p.m. ET
On Tuesday, February 17, 2026, episode of The Excerpt podcast: As the critical midterms approach, we’re taking a look at how Trump’s numbers may be influencing voters. USA TODAY Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page joins The Excerpt to share her insights.
Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.
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Dana Taylor:
As the critical midterms approach, we’re taking a look at how Trump’s numbers may be influencing voters. At stake, 435 house seats, 35 Senate seats, 39 governorships, and the nation’s political direction for the next two years.
Hello and welcome to USA TODAY’s the Excerpt. I’m Dana Taylor. Today is Tuesday, February 17th, 2026. Here to help me talk about what the numbers can tell us about those midterms is USA TODAY Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page. Susan, thank you so much for joining me.
Susan Page:
Hey, it’s great to be back with you,
Dana Taylor:
Susan, President Donald Trump isn’t going to be on the ballot this fall, and per law never will be again. Why does voters perception of his track record so far matter so much in the midterms?
Susan Page:
Well, Dana, of course, you’re right. The president’s not on the ballot in the midterm. That’s why we call them midterms, midway through their term. But the midterms are all about the president’s, and that’s true not just for Donald Trump, but for previous presidents. It’s the first chance that voters have to weigh in on how they think the president is doing. And in a few cases, the President’s party has actually gained ground in the midterms, but that’s not usually the case. Usually this is a chance for voters to say to presidents, “You’re not focused on the issues that I care about,” or, “You’re not delivering what you promised in the last campaign.” So for most presidents, midterms have been a pain point, not an opportunity to expand how they’re doing.
Dana Taylor:
Let’s shift to Trump’s approval rating. What is it now? How has it been trending? And what does it tell us about how the upcoming midterm elections might go?
Susan Page:
We took a look at three of the more respected pollsters who have recently been in the field, and they put his approval rating at 36 or 37%. That is dismal. That is the worst. If that persists until the midterms, that would be the worst standing for a president since Harry Truman. So that is a red alarm blaring for Republicans. Because when a president’s approval rating is that low, when it sinks to 40% or below, that is really a time we see often dozens of house seats lost by the president’s party.
Dana Taylor:
Voters across America are very concerned right now about the economy. The University of Michigan’s Authoritative consumer Sentiment survey measures this through a number called either economic optimism or economic angst, depending on its value. Where does that stand today?
Susan Page:
When we talk about the economy, often we talk about things like the unemployment rate, or the GDP, or the inflation rate, and those are important numbers, and those numbers are actually looking pretty good. But if you look at how people are feeling about the economy, it’s not so good. That’s one reason we were looking at the University of Michigan survey, which goes back to the 1950s. It asks Americans whether they feel like, around their kitchen table, the economy is doing well or not well, how optimistic or pessimistic they are about the future. And the number in February was 57.3.
To put that in some context, the lowest the rating has been in the past half century is 50. The highest it’s been is just over 111. So this is a relatively low rating. This is a sign that a lot of voters, a lot of Americans are feeling that the economy isn’t doing well, it’s not doing well for them and their families. We find in their survey that wealthier you are, the more more you’re invested in the stock market, for instance, the better you’re feeling. But for households that are not invested in the stock market, they are as pessimistic now as they’ve been even at the end of the Covid pandemic.
Dana Taylor:
What kinds of levers has the Trump administration been using to execute on its promise to lower prices, and in general, make the economy outlook a little brighter for people?
Susan Page:
Well, we do see gas prices down. We see the inflation rate under better control. Egg prices, which were a big source of concern in the Biden administration, are way down. But electricity costs are up, people are finding it harder to buy a home, so it’s a kind of mixed economy. You do see the president pushing the Federal Reserve Board to lower interest rates, that would juice up the economy if the Federal Reserve went along and did that.
Dana Taylor:
I did want to ask about that. Trump has named his nominee for the new chairman of the Fed as Kevin Warsh. Warsh is expected to succeed the current chair, Jerome Powell, in May when his term ends. Are we expecting Warsh to execute on Trump’s demands for lower interest rates, and how might that have an impact on the economy?
Susan Page:
Well, of course, Powell was also appointed by Trump, but he has not been a friendly year for Trump’s entreaties to lower interest rates, and that’s because he’s expressed alarm about what it might do to inflation. That is always a balance the Federal Reserve tries to strike. Now, Warsh is a figure from Wall Street. He’s served on the Fed before. He’s a respected figure, and he almost certainly will be more likely to be attuned to Trump’s attitude on this than Powell has been. In fact, Trump has made it clear that that is all but a condition for his appointment, that he will move to lower interest rates. So it’s entirely possible that we’ll see that ahead.
Dana Taylor:
Healthcare costs have skyrocketed for millions of Americans this year as the ACA or Obamacare subsidies have been allowed to expire. And despite many attempts to convince American voters that the Republicans had a better healthcare plan to roll out, that hasn’t happened. Not in Trump’s first term, and it doesn’t look promising for a second. How might healthcare play into the messaging we’re expecting to see this year?
Susan Page:
You’re not likely to see a solution on these subsidies, these expanded subsidies for people who are covered by the Affordable Care Act. That was the issue in the longest shutdown we’ve ever had of the government, 43 days. But you are going to hear a lot about it, you’re going to hear about it from Democrats. Because Democrats will make the argument that this is really problematic for a lot of Americans, for millions of Americans who had come to count on those expanded subsidies. We’ve seen healthcare premiums in some cases spike by two or three times with the expiration of those subsidies is prompted some Americans, millions of Americans actually, to drop their healthcare coverage. This is going to be a big issue in the midterm elections.
Dana Taylor:
Trump’s main super PAC MAGA Inc. has accumulated a sizable war chest since the 2024 election, now boasts a total of over $300 million. Currently, there’s no democratic counterweight. How might this play out and what will you be watching for?
Susan Page:
Dana, let’s be clear, we’ve never seen money like this in American politics. For a lame duck president to have at his disposal $304 million in his super PAC to spend as he wishes, that is an extraordinarily powerful potential for the midterm elections and for the 2028 elections. We see the Republicans have a big advantage on the Senate campaign committees, a big advantage on the Republican National Committee over the Democratic National Committee. The Republicans have a lot of problems when they look at the midterm elections, but I can tell you, money is not going to be one of them.
Dana Taylor:
Immigration enforcement has been a sore spot for Trump and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem over the past few months, as voters saw video evidence of the violence that led to the deaths of two Americans shot and killed in Minneapolis. How are Republicans hoping to quell voters concerns about immigration enforcement strategy and tactics?
Susan Page:
Here’s something that has been a big asset for President Trump and the Republicans suddenly has become a liability. The pictures that we saw out of Minneapolis, the two Americans who were killed, the picture of that five-year-old boy in a bunny hat being taken by agents, those are things that resonated with some of Trump’s own voters. We’ve seen the President lose support among Hispanic voters and among older Republican women. Some of that is because of concern about the tactics they saw being used on the streets of Minneapolis.
But the Republicans have a potential answer to this, which is to try to focus more attention on immigration on the southern border because that is where the President’s support continues to be strong. His administration has been largely successful in controlling the southern border in a way we didn’t see during the Biden administration. So can they get people to focus on that when they think about immigration and not about what they saw on the streets of Minneapolis?
Dana Taylor:
Overall, what will you be watching for over the next few from the Trump administration with regards to boosting Republican candidates?
Susan Page:
Nine months is a long time. That’s time enough for things to change. But if things stay the same as they are now, Democrats are quite confident that they will take control of the House of Representatives, they only need to flip three seats to do that. And they are increasingly optimistic that they might win control of the Senate as well.
Dana Taylor:
Susan Page is USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief. Susan, it is always good to have you on.
Susan Page:
Thank you.
Dana Taylor:
Thanks to our senior producer Kaely Monahan for her production assistant. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com. Thanks for listening. I’m Dana Taylor. I’ll be back tomorrow morning with another episode of USA TODAY’s, The Excerpt.
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