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Facts around the balance of imports and exports under President Trump and his tariffs can seem impossibly contradictory.
For example, the trade deficit during the last 14 months of President Biden’s time in office is nearly identical to the first 14 months of Trump 2.0. Biden averaged $73.7 billion each month on the way out, while President Trump has averaged $73.1 billion ever since.
That can make it seem like tariffs have been a bust after Trump called trade deficits his central reason for imposing tariffs and even name-checked the issue in his “Liberation Day” executive order.
But supporters of the president can quickly push back that Trump has overseen a whopping 55% drop in the monthly trade deficit from his first month in office to the most recent reading.
But both stats — while true — are misleading. The reason is a four-month surge in imports from December 2024 to March 2025 that saw average monthly trade deficits north of $120 billion as importers flooded US ports after Trump’s election to fill their warehouses in anticipation of new tariffs.
It has also made the numbers messy ever since, but that hasn’t slowed either side of the partisan divide from trying to dice the numbers to their advantage.
That spin cycle is sure to be in evidence again this week when March 2026 numbers are released by the government, one year after historically high March 2025 numbers were seen on the eve of Trump’s “Liberation Day.”
Look for Trump’s team on Tuesday to tout another double-digit drop while omitting the fact that any decrease was made possible because March 2025 was the apex of that four-month surge, when Trump oversaw the largest monthly trade deficit in US history, over $135 billion.
How to understand the trends
Perhaps the best way to understand the trends so far is to look at the last 11 months of Biden’s presidency before the surge began, and compare them with the 11 months of data we have from Trump’s second term after the surge ended.
By that measure, Trump’s tariffs have indeed taken a chunk out of the trade deficit. Biden’s average figure for this 11-month span was just over $73 billion, while a comparable 11 months of Trump came in at about $58 billion.
That’s a drop of more than 25%, which is significant but far below what Trump sometimes asserts.
In February, he said on social media that the trade deficit had dropped by 78% and would “GO INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY DURING THIS YEAR.”
No evidence for either claim was offered — and the US remains a long way from a trade surplus — but Trump’s second term so far has changed the trade balance somewhat.
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