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Tensions between Iran and the US remained high on Monday, with a US official reportedly calling Iran’s latest counterproposal for permanently ending the war insufficient and saying negotiations were “not making a lot of progress.” The official said that if Iran were not more responsive, there would have to be a “conversation through bombs.”

Iranian media reports had, earlier, described Washington’s demands as “excessive.” But later on Monday, the country’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that US President Donald Trump committed to freezing sanctions on Iranian oil during ongoing nuclear talks.

If true, that would represent a new concession by the US. The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control would issue waivers while negotiations continue, according to the report.

Separately, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Washington has also shown flexibility on allowing Iran to maintain limited peaceful nuclear activities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The back-and-forth came amid reports that Israel and the US were preparing for the possibility of renewing strikes on Iran, and a day after Trump warned that the “clock is ticking” for Tehran to agree to a deal, “or there won’t be anything left of them.”

Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Iran to meet various ultimatums and then backed off. A New York Times/Siena poll published on Monday found that the war was unpopular among voters and dragging down his popularity ahead of this year’s US midterm elections, with his approval rating sinking to 37 percent.

Two Middle East officials told the New York Times that the United States and Israel “are engaged in intense preparations, the largest since the ceasefire took effect,” for a possible renewal of attacks on Iran this week.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to convene a small group of senior ministers and aides Monday evening for a security discussion, the office of one of the ministers told The Times of Israel, after a similar discussion Sunday night.

The US official told Axios that the fact that Iran submitted a counterproposal was a good sign, but that war could resume if talks remained stalled.

“It’s time for the Iranians to throw bit of candy out,” the official reportedly said. “We need some real, sturdy, and granular conversation [regarding the nuclear program]. If that’s not gonna happen, we will have a conversation through bombs, which will be a shame.”

In previous terms for a deal dismissed by Trump, Iran had refused to relinquish its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium, and insisted on the “right” to enrichment. It denies seeking nuclear weapons, but has enriched uranium to levels with no civilian application.

“As we announced yesterday, our concerns were conveyed to the American side,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said during a press briefing Monday.

Exchanges are “continuing through the Pakistani mediator,” he said, without providing details.

Baghaei defended Iran’s demands, including the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad and the lifting of long-standing sanctions. “The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.

He also defended an Iranian stipulation that the US pay war reparations, describing the conflict as “illegal and baseless.”

On the possibility of another military confrontation, Baghaei said Iran is “fully prepared for any eventuality.”

On Sunday, Iran’s Fars news agency said Washington had presented a five-point list, which included a demand for Iran to keep only one nuclear site in operation and transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to the United States. The US had refused to release “even 25 percent” of Iran’s frozen assets or pay any reparations for war damage, according to Fars.

The report said the US had also made clear it would only cease hostilities when Tehran engages in formal peace negotiations.

Iran’s Mehr news agency said, “The United States, offering no tangible concessions, wants to obtain concessions that it failed to obtain during the war, which will lead to an impasse in the negotiations.” It described the US conditions as “excessive.”

In an earlier proposal, which was sent last week, Iran had called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, as well as a halt to a US naval blockade on Iranian ports in place since April 13. It also called for the lifting of all US sanctions on Iran and the release of its assets frozen abroad.

Fars said the Iranian proposal had emphasized that Tehran would continue to manage the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy conduit Iran has largely kept closed since the start of the war with the US and Israel on February 28. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since April 8.

Iran announces new body to manage Hormuz

Also on Monday, Iran’s top security authority announced the formation of a new body to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran wants to charge ships to traverse.

On its official X account, the Supreme National Security Council shared a post for the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), saying it would provide “real‑time updates on the #Hormuz_Strait operations and latest developments.”

The account of the Revolutionary Guards navy shared the same post.

It was not immediately clear what the new body would do, but earlier this month Iranian English-speaking broadcaster Press TV said it constituted a “system to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz” and that ships passing through the strait were sent “regulations” from Iranian authorities via email.

Iran’s grip over the waterway has rattled global markets and given Tehran significant leverage, while the United States has imposed its own naval blockade on Iranian ports. In peacetime, the route accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, along with other key commodities including fertilizer.

As the strait remains largely closed, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said Monday that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ supply left.

Birol also said at the G7 meeting in Paris that the release of strategic oil reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but that these reserves are not limitless.

Since the war began, Iran has repeatedly said that maritime traffic through the strait would “not return to its pre-war status” and last month it said it had received the first revenue from tolls on the waterway.

On Saturday, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, said Iran “has prepared a professional mechanism to manage traffic” through the strait, adding that it will be “unveiled soon.”

Iran warns Gulf countries against ties with Israel

Meanwhile, in the wake of Israeli claims that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials visited the United Arab Emirates during the war, Iran warned “some countries in the region” against cooperation with the Jewish state.

“The fact that there have been many exchanges between the Zionist regime and some countries in the region is not hidden from our view,” said Baghaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman.

“The countries of the region, including the UAE, should learn from what happened in the last two or three months,” he said, adding that the contacts “have emboldened the Zionists in committing crimes.”

The UAE has denied that any such visit occurred.

“They saw that the military presence of the US and the Zionist regime in the region does not bring security, it brings insecurity for all countries in the region,” Baghaei said.

Arguing that the prosperity of Middle Eastern countries is harmed by cooperation with the US and Israel, Baghaei called on them “to take control of their own land. They have made their resources available to the aggressors.” He insisted that Iran has “no enmity with any of the countries in the region.”

“We are and will be permanent neighbors with all countries in the region, including the UAE,” he added.

The UAE has been the country most targeted by Iran since the outbreak of war on February 28. On Sunday, a drone strike targeted the UAE’s sole nuclear power plant, sparking a fire.

The Justice Department on Monday announced that it was establishing a $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” after President Donald Trump moved to dismiss a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over his leaked tax returns.

Justice Department officials announced that Trump and his co-plaintiffs would drop their IRS lawsuit as well as other claims of damages in connection with the 2022 search of Mar-A-Lago and in connection with the Russian collusion scandal “in exchange” for the creation of the fund, which DOJ said set up a “systematic process to hear and redress claims of others who suffered weaponization and lawfare.”

The establishment of the fund came ahead of court deadlines in the IRS case, which would have required the Trump administration to explain whether there was an actual case to be heard, given Trump’s control over the Justice Department’s actions.

ABC was first to report on the news of the settlement.

The massive fund would give Jan. 6 rioters pardoned by Trump a mechanism to seek taxpayer payouts for their claims of government overreach. The fund could even issue “formal apologies” to individuals who made claims against the government, the announcement stated. The fund will stop processing claims by Dec. 15, 2028, about a month before Trump’s second term is set to end.

The $1,776,000,000 amount available for the fund was based “upon the projected valuation of future claimants’ claims,” according to the Justice Department.

A group of House Democrats called the move a “$1.7 billion slush fund” that the president could use to “reward allies, including the nearly 1,600 defendants convicted or charged in connection with the January 6th attack on the Capitol.”

Rep. Joe Neguse, D-Colo., called the news “one of the most brazen examples of corruption we’ve seen from this administration.” The House Democrats’ Litigation Task Force filed a motion seeking to block what Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., called “pure fraud and highway robbery.”

The attorney general would appoint five members of the commission to oversee the fund, including one member to be chosen in consultation with congressional leadership, the DOJ said, adding that Trump could remove any member of the commission.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who issued a memo establishing the fund, said the “machinery of government should never be weaponized against any American” and that the Justice Department intended to “make right the wrongs that were previously done while ensuring this never happens again.” Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter said that the “use of government power to target individuals or entities for improper and unlawful political, personal, or ideological reasons should not be tolerated by any Administration.”

The president’s two elder sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, as well as the Trump Organization, were the other plaintiffs in the IRS case and also moved to drop the lawsuit, according to a Monday court filing.

A spokesman for Trump’s legal team said in a statement on Monday that “President Trump, his family, supporters, and countless other America First Patriots were illegally targeted by the Democrat-lead law enforcement agencies, including the Department of Justice, and the IRS.” The statement added that Trump was “entering into this settlement squarely for the benefit of the American people, and he will continue his fight to hold those who wrong America and Americans accountable.”

The White House referred questions about the filing to the DOJ. Representatives for the Treasury Department and the IRS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump, his sons and the Trump Organization filed a lawsuit in January, alleging that the IRS and the Treasury Department failed to prevent a former IRS employee from leaking their tax returns.

Last month, the judge overseeing the case had questioned whether there was an actual controversy for the court to address, given Trump’s control over the Justice Department.

The Trump administration was facing a Wednesday deadline to explain “whether a case or controversy exists,” and outside legal experts had told U.S. District Judge Kathleen M. Williams that it could be “useful” for the court to look into whether the attorneys representing the government were “insulated” from the president.

“This case is unprecedented: A sitting president seeks monetary damages for alleged harm to his personal interests from an executive agency that he controls. That presents significant Article III subject matter jurisdiction concerns,” the experts wrote.

“The Court might ask why DOJ’s approach to litigating this case appears to depart from its approach in similar cases, as well as what steps Defendants are taking to ensure that settlement discussions are conducted at arm’s length and without risk of collusion,” they continued.

In Monday’s filing, the president’s personal lawyers argued that the court did not have to weigh in because they were voluntarily dismissing the case and the administration never replied to the suit.

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As the US prepares for hurricane season and a summer of record-breaking heat, experts fear the Trump administration’s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make the federal government’s weather forecasts less reliable when they are needed most.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) late last year launched a suite of artificial intelligence-powered global weather forecast models which it said would improve “speed, efficiency, and accuracy”. In March, an agency official said those models were being trained with centuries of weather data.

Artificial intelligence is a valuable tool for weather prediction, but only when it is well-trained with ample data, said Monica Medina, who served as Noaa’s principal deputy undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere from 2009 to 2012.

Under Trump, climate and weather data collection has declined, said Medina. This year, the Trump administration proposed a modest budget increase for the National Weather Service, but a 40% cut to Noaa overall.

“We absolutely need AI to help us crunch the data faster and to make sense of more and more data that we can collect,” said Medina, who under Joe Biden also served as assistant secretary of state for oceans. “But right now, what we’re doing is cutting back the data collection … we’re going in the wrong direction.”

In an emailed comment, Erica Grow Cei, a National Weather Service spokesperson said: “Despite the misinformation circulating about missing weather and climate data, there is, in fact, a wealth of weather data collected each day, from satellites in space, to a network of weather balloons, to buoys in the ocean, and land-based sensors.”

But widespread reports show staffing cuts have forced Noaa’s National Weather Service to scale back satellites and balloon launches, key parts of the country’s data collection system. And shrunken climate programs threaten ocean buoy networks and other observation systems, experts say. Research into effects of the climate crisis on Earth’s systems is also being slashed, along with funding for researchers who analyze data and identify new sources.

“Weather times time equals climate,” said Craig McLean, Noaa’s former acting chief scientist and head of Noaa Research. “Cutting climate research impacts the skill of our weather forecast, and it arrests our advancement of weather forecasts.”

Those impediments are coming as the US is preparing for more extreme weather. A “super El Niño” is expected to spike temperatures, smash heat records nationwide and may boost hurricane activity in some regions.

Noaa will issue its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

‘A climate that no longer exists’

For decades, scientists used traditional physics-based models to predict future weather conditions, using complex mathematical equations to simulate the dynamics at work in the atmosphere. New AI-based models instead identify patterns in decades of historical data to forecast weather outcomes.

That new technology uses less computing power than traditional models – which must run thousands of mathematical equations to work – and has been found to outperform traditional models for some aspects of weather forecasting. But it also seems to have major shortcomings, experts have found.

Crucially, when it comes to predicting extreme weather events, new models still “underperform”, according to an April study published in Science Advances. Because their forecasts are based on past weather events, the authors found, they seem to have trouble simulating the record-breaking weather events that are becoming increasingly common amid the climate crisis, instead tending to predict weather more similar to historical events.

Traditional physics-based models don’t have this problem, because they assess and predict the weather outcomes that certain physical conditions yield.

“They don’t really care if there’s a different situation than we’ve seen before, because they can understand based on a rules-based [analysis] what will happen tomorrow,” said Sebastian Engelke, a professor at the University of Geneva who co-authored the study.

Chris Gloninger, a forensic meteorologist who in 2023 received death threats after speaking about the climate crisis on television, likened the problems with AI-powered models to the ways other kinds of infrastructure struggles to manage a world experiencing global warming.

“You have infrastructure systems in this country that are built on having a steady or static climate, and we know that that’s not the case as extremes are increasing,” he said.

Like stormwater systems that were not designed to keep up with climate-fueled heavy rainfall events or roads that were not designed to withstand climate-fueled extreme heat, “the AI weather models were trained on a climate that no longer exists”, Gloninger said.

This problem already has real-world implications, said Gloninger, noting that conventional models outperformed AI-based ones when forecasting a historic February 2026 blizzard in the north-eastern US.

If the government scales up its reliance on AI-powered models while reducing the amount of data that powers them, that problem could compromise federal forecasts, said Gloninger.

“It’s kind of a snowball effect,” he said. “You need accurate data for inputs for our forecast models, but we’re running on less data currently with this current administration.”

Long before Trump re-entered office, the National Weather Service had faced decades of understaffing. Recent cuts have exacerbated the problem, Gloninger said.

Noaa has not wholesale switched to AI forecasting. Instead, it says it is employing more artificial intelligence in its ensemble models, which blend multiple techniques to produce a range of probable outcomes. Cei said Noaa’s new AI-powered model suite is “an addition to our stable of weather models, not a replacement”, adding that it was “built on data” from the agency’s flagship physics-based Global Forecast System model.

But Gloninger said he was still concerned that rolling any AI technology into federal models could raise problems, particularly amid cuts to weather data collection and climate research.

“There could still very much be issues when you have a component of artificial intelligence that isn’t really trained when it comes to extreme weather and climate,” he said.

Neil Jacobs, current Noaa administrator, is “probably one of the pre-eminent modeling scientists”, said John Sokich, a former director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service.

“I don’t believe he would rush implement something that has not been tested,” said Sokich.

But though Jacobs is “committed to advancing weather forecasting”, Jacobs is also “a Trump appointee who must back the Trump budget or leave his job”, said McLean. The administrator defended Trump’s Noaa cuts at a House environment subcommittee hearing in April, McLean noted.

“I don’t think Dr Jacobs would be in a rush to be replacing capacity with AI that’s not ready yet,” he said. “But at the same time, the man has demonstrated his willingness to be obedient to the president who appointed him [and who is] destroying the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

Weather forecasts serve “indispensable” practical functions, powering early disaster warnings, enabling safe aviation and shipping, and helping officials optimize sectors of the economy from energy production to agriculture, said Medina. Less accurate forecasting could pose dangers to Americans, she said.

“Weather forecasts are vital to our economy, to our health, and to public safety,” she said.

Key Facts

What To Watch For

The DOJ’s notice Monday states the U.S. Treasury must pay $1.776 billion into the “anti-weaponization” fund within 60 days of the settlement taking effect, though it’s still unclear what that date will be. It’s unclear when payouts could begin. It’s also possible the fund could get tied up in litigation over whether it’s legal to begin with, ABC noted in its report last week. Donald K. Sherman, president of ethics watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, noted in a statement to Forbes last week the then-potential settlement fund could violate the Constitution’s Domestic Emoluments Clause, which prohibits presidents and other federal officials from profiting off their position beyond their government salary.

How Will The Settlement Fund Work?

The “anti-weaponization” fund will be for “victims of lawfare and weaponization to be heard and seek redress,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said Monday, though it’s still unclear who exactly will be approved to get money from it. Those who believe they’re victims can apply to receive compensation from the fund, the DOJ said in a press release Monday, and the fund will be able to issue both “formal apologies and monetary relief” to those who file claims. It will issue claims through Dec. 1, 2028, right before Trump’s term ends. The fund will be run by a five-person board, which will be appointed by the attorney general. One of the members will also be appointed “in consultation with congressional leadership,” and Trump will have the power to remove the board members, the DOJ said. The $1.776 billion allocated for the fund will be used to both pay out claims, and on administrative costs associated with running the fund.

Chief Critics

Democrats, ethics experts and other groups have decried the $1.8 billion fund since ABC first reported last week that it could come to fruition. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, said Monday the fund “will be the most brazen theft and abuse of taxpayer dollars by any president in American history,” and Brandon DeBot, policy director at the Tax Law Center at New York University, described the settlement Monday as “a breathtaking abuse of the tax and legal system.”

Could Trump Use The Settlement Fund To Pay Himself?

It’s unclear. ABC’s reporting last week suggested the proposed settlement fund could not be used to make payments to Trump directly, even though the president claims he was a victim of the Biden administration’s purported “weaponization” of the DOJ. It would not bar entities related to Trump from applying for payouts from the fund, ABC reported, however, which means Trump’s businesses could try to get money from it. The DOJ’s filing Monday did not include any specific terms regarding who can and can’t get payouts from the new fund.

Can A Judge Stop Trump From Settling With The Irs?

Probably not. Legal experts cited by The Times said if Trump were to settle with the IRS before Williams could rule on whether or not the lawsuit could move forward, the judge’s hands would be tied when it comes to allowing the settlement to go through. Williams would be unable to stop any private transactions between Trump and the IRS from taking place after the case has been dropped, even if she were to determine the lawsuit was invalid to begin with.

Key Background

Trump, his sons and the Trump Organization sued the IRS in January, alleging the agency violated his privacy by not keeping his tax returns sufficiently confidential. Former IRS contractor Charles Littlejohn was previously sentenced to five years in prison for passing details of Trump’s taxes on to ProPublica and other news organizations, which Trump alleged resulted in false reporting that “caused Plaintiffs reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump.” Trump’s tax returns have been a source of public fascination and controversy since the president first failed to release them before the 2016 election, and reporting from The Times and other outlets suggested Trump paid no income taxes for many years and used some “questionable measures” to lower his tax bill, which Trump disputes. The settlement fund comes as many Jan. 6 rioters who were convicted during the Biden administration for storming the Capitol have since sought money from the government, either in the form of refunds for the restitution they paid or bigger million-dollar payouts for the purported harm they faced by being prosecuted. Democrats have sought to pass legislation that would block such payouts, but those bills remain a longshot to pass in the GOP-controlled Congress.

Further Reading

ForbesTrump’s IRS Lawsuit Could Be Invalid—Here’s Why He Could Still Get $1.7 Billion AnywayBy Alison Durkee

Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has warned her one-time close ally President Donald Trump that putting U.S. boots on the ground in Iran could have dire consequences. 

“If you send in U.S. military troops into Iran, there is going to be a political revolution in America,” said Greene. “We said no more foreign wars and we meant it. The coalition will unite and be unstoppable. I’ll make sure of it.”

She signed off her message Sunday with a plea to “end this war,” referring to the ongoing conflict as “stupid.”

Trump, who has previously declined to rule out deploying ground troops in Iran, addressed the stalled peace talks between Washington and Tehran over the weekend.

“For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left of them. Time is of the essence,” warned Trump, amid the extended, yet increasingly fragile, U.S.-Iran cease-fire.

The President later posted an image of a U.S flag overlaying a map of the Middle East, with multiple arrows from neighboring countries all pointing to Iran.

This isn’t the first time Greene has criticized Trump for engaging in a conflict overseas after he campaigned on a promise to avoid dragging the U.S. into foreign wars, instead focusing on home prosperity. 

The former Congresswoman joins other high-profile conservatives—such as Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Candace Owens—who were once proudly part of the MAGA coalition, but have been critical of the Iran war, of which there is no clear end in sight.

An official second round of peace negotiations have yet to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, as Washington and Tehran remain split on key issues such as Iran’s nuclear capabilities and naval navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Little progress has been made since.

Proposals fall flat as strikes reported in the Gulf region, risking resumption of hostilities

“We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be,” Trump said of Iran in an interview published Sunday. “They will have to get there or they will be hit badly, and they don’t want that.”

Trump reportedly spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend about the war and, according to Axios, is set to meet with his own top national security team Tuesday to discuss military options.

Citing Pakistani sources, Reuters reported Monday morning that Pakistan had shared with the U.S. a revised proposal from Iran to ​end the war. 

TIME has been unable to independently verify the report and has reached out to the White House for comment. 

According to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, Tehran had previously expressed five demands to be fulfilled in order for negotiations to continue. They wanted a permanent end to the conflict (including in Lebanon), sanctions on Iran to be lifted, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, compensation for war damages, and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. 

“The major roadblock is still the question of Iran’s nuclear program, and in particular, whether they will be allowed to continue enriching uranium,” Jonathan Morten, director of the International Public Policy Programme at University College London, tells TIME. 

Alongside disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Strait of Hormuz is another key issue. 

“We have the question of to what extent, or whether Iran will continue to regulate or control shipping in and out of the Strait of Hormuz,” says Morten. “There are several possible levels of agreement. One is that they find a way to agree about the status of the Strait of Hormuz, but not on the larger nuclear issue. So far, Trump hasn’t been willing to do that.”

Reported strikes in the Gulf region are further complicating matters and fueling geopolitical tensions.

The United Arab Emirate’s defense ministry reported three drones entering Emirate airspace on Sunday, two of which were successfully intercepted. 

“The third struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the Al Dhafra Region,” the ministry said.

In Saudi Arabia, three drones “coming from Iraqi airspace” were intercepted and struck down, according to the country’s defense ministry.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside other Gulf allies of the U.S., were targeted by Iranian drones in the initial weeks of the conflict. The stability of the region is paramount to any lasting pathway to a permanent end to the war.

Trump’s approval rating plummets in U.S. amid the fallout of Iran war

Trump’s approval rating has dipped to 37%, according to a poll published by the New York Times on Monday.

The Times/Siena poll also found that 64% of Americans think Trump’s move to go to war with Iran was the wrong decision. 

Many Americans are feeling the economic impact of the war in the Middle East.

Due to the effective blockage in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage through which around a fifth of global oil production flows, energy prices have risen significantly.

The national price average for one gallon of gasoline now sits at $4.51 according to the American Automobile Association, up from $2.98 per gallon just before the conflict began.

American consumers are also feeling the pinch when doing their weekly shops.

Grocery store bills rose 0.7% in April—the biggest one-month jump in grocery prices in nearly four years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—and 2.9% over the past year. Fresh fruits and vegetables drove the largest increase among food products, soaring 6.1% in April from a year earlier.

The Trump Administration’s hardline tariff policies and the Iran war have both taken a toll.

When asked last week to what extent he factored in Americans’ financial situation when considering a deal, Trump said: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”

But the economic impact of the war could prove damaging for the Republican Party at the midterms in November, experts tells TIME.

Morten predicts that Democrats will focus heavily on the economic strain during their own campaigning efforts.

“Their calculation is that [Trump] is more vulnerable on issues around inflation, the cost of living, high gas prices, and the way those things seem to be linked directly to the conflict in Iran,” he says.

“Republicans who are standing for election this year, particularly in the House, are very, very concerned about this issue of Iran and its impact.”